One of the most highly anticipated IPOs in years is on its way. SpaceX ($SPCX) filed with the SEC in order for them to go public. This filing gives us some much desired insight into SPCX’s operations not that we have audited financial statements.
Business Segments
Space
The original SpaceX operation is designing, manufacturing, launching, and operating reusable rockets and spacecraft. This includes Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon and Starship operations. The revenue comes from launch and mission services for commercial and government customers. SpaceX claims to to have 80% of the global market for metric tons of mass being launched into space.
Connectivity
The connectivity segment is Starlink, the satellite broadband provider. Over 60% of their subscriber are consumers. Starlink Mobile has partnerships across 30 mobile networks on six continents. This is the only profitable segment in 2025.
Here’s the breakdown of the revenue sources for Starlink.
AI
The AI segment primarily includes Grok, X, and xAI. The goal is to use compute, data, and eventually orbital infrastructure to advance AI and scientific discovery. The AI segment makes money through advertising, Grok and X subscriptions and data licensing arrangements.
Financial Results
Revenue grew 33% in 2025 but expenses grew at 56%, resulting in the $4.9B loss incurred in 2025. R&D expenses increased from $3.5B in 2024 to $8.6B in 2025, driven by AI infrastructure and Starship development.
Revenue
SpaceX’s top-line revenue grew 34.1% for 2025 but Starlink is the driver for revenue growth. What is interesting is this is the fastest growing segment is the only profitable segment. This means there is a path to profitability for the company as a whole, but the heavy AI infrastructure investment is likely to consume any cashflows the space or connectivity segments will produce.
Capex
AI capex is 61% of total spend in 2025 and has already spent $7.7B in Q1 of 2026. This complicates the investment case for SpaceX. Any cash flow will be funneled for continued AI buildout, likely causing the company to not have profits for years to come. SpaceX is in the potential “AI bubble” where asset prices may be overvalued compared to future returns. Since those returns are uncertain, we can’t ignore the potential high risk of this investment.
Risk
The biggest risks are:
AI could consume cash for years. The AI segment is early-stage, capital-intensive, and currently deeply unprofitable.
Starship is critical but still a major development expense. The Space segment funded about $3.0B of Starship R&D in 2025, and Starship is central to the company’s long-term plan.
Governance is founder-controlled. Elon will retain significant voting control.
Regulatory risk is high. SpaceX operates in launch, satellites, telecom spectrum, national security, AI, social media, data privacy, and international markets. That is an unusually broad regulatory footprint.
Competition is intense. The filing cites competition across launch, satellite broadband, mobile connectivity, social media, and AI. In AI specifically, SpaceX is going up against some of the best-capitalized companies in the world.
Bottom Line
Connectivity is the clear winner. Revenue growth is strong and is the current driver of cash flows.
Space is growing, but not by a lot.
AI will require heavy investment without a clear picture of how much upside really exist.
Reference: SpaceX IPO Filing