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Contents

Market Update

What drove market sentiment

First, the Nasdaq led because semiconductors led. Since investors believe the AI infrastructure cycle is still alive, chip and data-center related names tend to pull the Nasdaq higher fast. Micron $MU ( ▲ 0.79% ) led the surge this week due to signals of overwhelming demand for memory.

Second, the jobs report gave investors permission to keep buying. The economy added more jobs than expected and the unemployment rate stayed around 4.3%. When jobs come in better than expected, it gives investors confidence that consumers can still spend and companies can still sell. Everything is perfect, but this temporarily reduces the fear that we’re heading straight into a downturn.

Stock of the Week: Amazon.com, Inc.

Amazon.com, Inc. $AMZN ( ▲ 4.58% ) is one of the most intriguing businesses in the market. We’ve watched this book reseller turn into an e-commerce giant and now, a significant, incredibly diverse and successful holding company.

Amazon is seven businesses totaling $717 billion in revenues in 2025 with 12.4% revenue growth from last year.

Business Segment

% of Revenues

Online Stores

38%

3rd Party Seller Services

24%

Amazon Web Services (AWS)

18%

Advertising

10%

Subscription

7%

Physical Stores

2%

Other

1%

Amazon has had a 13.3% revenue growth rate for the past five years. This isn’t the highest growth rate on the market but a solid rate for a blended business with various revenue streams, some mature and others new. The growing demand for cloud services is why this company’s growth rate is expected to grow higher for the foreseeable future.

Cash Flow Scare?

The largest story around Amazon is their commitment to AI infrastructure buildout. This has many investors watching intently as $ billions are spent to prepare for future demand, which is the case for many of the largest businesses around the world.

Cash generated from operations was a record $139.5b in ‘25. But capital expenditures increased 59% to $131.8b. About 94% of the cash generated from their business was spent on building data centers. This spend brought free cash flow down to $7.6b, down from $32.8b in ‘24. This is what has investors nervous.

Cash flow is the most important number for savvy investors. When a company’s cash flow drops, it will always draw attention. However, the best reason for cash flow to drop is when management is reinvesting in the business to create more value. This “artificial” drop in cash flow is not a sign of struggling operations, but one that should be encouraged by investors. There are still questions around AI demand, but all the signs are pointing to an increase in value due to these data center investments.

Balance Sheet Health

The numbers don’t look the best, but this is an issue of the reinvestment which heavily impacts free cash flow. $AMZN ( ▲ 4.58% ) hasn’t kept themselves in the strongest position of leverage. With down years in ‘21 and ‘22, and now in the drop in cash flow in ‘25 as mentioned earlier, these three years increases there average D/FCF multiple to 16.4. This would usually be a huge red flag resulting in a “no go” on investing in a company that’s leveraged this poorly.

The reinvestment in AI infrastructure is the only reason this metric looks bad at first glance. This is the reason for this newsletterto take a deep look in the operations and make sense of the numbers for accurate investment decision making. If you see any grim headlines about Amazon’s operations, it is likely due this.

Debt-to-Free Cash Flow ($ millions)

Valuation

Current Price

Fair Value Range

$272.68

See full analysis ⬇️

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